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militarily fatal blow. Consequently he thumbs his nose at the West. He hideously pollutes the Persian Gulf; terrorizes Israeli, Turkish, Saudi and Bahrainian citizens; and he insists that he will win the war and hold Kuwait.

Saddam may not be a well-schooled military tactician nor a qualified strategist, but he most certainly has an uncanny ability to sense weakness in his enemies. He studied the Viet Nam war's terror-tactics and has taken many a lesson from the Soviets who quickly became absent from the Gulf. He applied his own political savvy and a keen mastery of the grotesque. Now the West watches in bewilderment as Iraq oozes unorthodoxy. In the meantime Saddam and his principal military assets languish in underground shelters, waiting...

Perhaps he believes that in order to fulfill his life-long ambition of becoming potentate of a united Arab world he must do battle with the U.S. — not necessarily beating the U.S., but fighting it and the "Zionist invaders" vigorously. Throngs of Islamics believe he is doing just that.

Are we of the West "step-by-step" walking into a pit Saddam has long prepared for us? In a public battle with Toronto broadcaster Peter Worthington, the CBC has been broadly accused of taking an anti-American stance in its Gulf coverage. The CBC's approach, which is not unlike many of the demonstrators seen in major western cities whom Saddam has publicly thanked, may be proof positive that Saddam is winning, not losing "step by step" as George Bush has declared.

One must remember that Saddam measures his success rate not with opinion polls but with real live steamy masses of chanting Moslems — millions of them. Winning the propaganda war, which for his goal is everything, could be all that Saddam wants or needs.

Anxiety over vignettes of brutalized American and British PoWs is repeatedly fed by CBC Newsworld. On Monday night at 22:15 EST and Tuesday morning at 02:35 it was still giving us doses of those same pictures first foisted on the West by Saddam a week earlier. And as CBC

Volume 5, Number 5 January 30, 1991

Comment:

IF ROUND TWO IS A DRAW ...

It has nothing to do with religion per se, but it has everything to do with what religion stands for — good versus evil, right versus wrong... It is a just war... Good will prevail." - U.S. President George Bush

Bush's words, however you regard them, confirm that hope for avoiding a major land-war in Kuwait is fading each day Saddam plays possum — a hurt possum with a taunting sneer.

Saddam's boldness might come from hidden stockpiles of Soman, Tabin and Sarin or perhaps is derived from knowing there are 500,000 land mines and oil-filled trenches waiting to foil allied troops should they cross the Saudi Arabian border into Kuwait. Certainly any entrenched defender would have an intrinsic tactical advantage, but Saddam seems to think that his is even greater. Nonetheless, whether his brashness is justified or not it is clear that if coalition forces launch a heavy land-force assault into Kuwait, Saddam will again have got what he wants.

Although persistent bombing raids have inflicted sizable damage to Iraq's tools-of-war and even to Iraq's population, Saddam has withstood a massive aerial bombardment without taking a

Newsworld proudly claims, our fighter pilots stationed in the Gulf region are getting the same dosage we get at home. Saddam could hardly have anticipated that bonus.

The CBC ceaselessly endeavours to tell "the other side of the story" while playing the fool's game of trying to second guess the propagandists on both sides. We know that, but Saddam sees it as confirmation that the West has no stomach for a fight.

On Monday, CBC broadcasters attacked the U.S. government accusing it of grossly overstating Iraq's arsenals, particularly in the areas of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. Maybe the CBC is right and Saddam is a helpless, loudmouthed wimp with a big imagination.

But the experts' "experts" believe otherwise. Israeli intelligence sources (albeit with an axe to grind) told us last Friday that Saddam had many missile launchers left in his arsenal and that he can indeed put chemical weapons into the warheads of the al-Hussein missiles raining down on Tel Aviv, so far with high explosive payloads. The Washington Post has since reported the same view citing different sources.

A high-ranking Israeli source in Jerusalem told us there exists a prevalent concern in Tel Aviv that Saddam may indeed be waiting for the day when the Israelis' gas mask canisters have become ineffective as a result of countless false alarms during which every Israeli citizen spends an aggregate of hours breathing heavily through the limited-life filters. What then? The Wednesday Report's Moshe Karem reports that many Israelis are concerned that if "Saddam goes down" he'll take Israel with him by unleashing his worst.

The sum of it all, inasmuch as no one fully understands his moves to date, is that few must really know what Saddam will do next.

But one thing is certain. If coalition forces are compelled to engage in a major land battle against Saddam's primary assets hunkered down in Kuwait, it will be a dirty, bloody engagement. The "kids" as Bush affectionately calls the soldiers in Saudi, Iraq's youth too, will be pressed into what will surely be a world of horror from which those with a conscience cannot emerge without being indelibly marred for life — a life of waking in the night, screaming and sweating out a certain mental agony. Such was the fate of many Viet Nam vets.

Unless Saddam is ousted and peace is hastily negotiated with his successor, a decisive round three, whatever it is that Saddam calls the "mother of all wars" will soon begin. In the aftermath of its conventional, nuclear, biological or chemical horrors, although Saddam will get his thrashing, it is likely that no rational thinking person from the battlefield will honestly say: "It was worth it."

Micheal John O'Brien

GULF NOTES FROM HALIFAX

Although Halifax is historically a military town, reporters in the city were befuddled last week by the onslaught of military terms flying out of the Gulf war. Crisis Simulations Ltd. conducted a one-day seminar for reporters to show them the difference between a SAM (surface-to-air missile) and a Scud. Company spokesman Terry Weatherbee thought it was about time that someone told the press the score, after seeing one newspaper report which saddled the M1A1 Abrams tank with an array of weapons usually found on the undercarriage of an F-15E Strike Eagle fighter. Weatherbee said that several reporters called him to ask for an explanation of military terminology and technology. One finally suggested a crash course for the media. Aside from the current air war, Crisis Simulations also touched upon the equipment and possible tactics of the upcoming ground war between allied and Iraqi forces in Kuwait.

Signs of the war in the Persian Gulf were apparent in Halifax last week as flatbed rail cars laden with military supplies and vehicles rolled into the Halterm container port. The equipment is bound for Al Jubayl, Saudi Arabia where 1 Canadian Field Hospital will be deployed from its home base at CFB Petawawa. (See The Wednesday Report, January 23, page 6, "Canadian Field Hospital Enroute To The Gulf".) Port officials stepped up security and closed the main gate adjacent to Point Pleasant Park. In peacetime the gate is usually open to allow local drivers to take their cars around the harbourfront. On top of this, Ports Canada security has increased searches of containers at the terminal, focusing on those bound for Jordan or other possible countries known to act as a go-between for Iraq and looking for contraband items forbidden under the United Nations trade embargo.

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January 30, 1991

Gulf Notes From Britain

POLITICS, PEACENIKS, DOWNED TORNADOS & THE CRATERING BOMB

Two weeks into the Gulf War, London remains firmly committed to the coalition's course of action. A second parliamentary debate on the crisis has if anything strengthened Westminster unanimity and enhanced the reputations of the leaders of the three political parties. A poll shows Premier John Major as enjoying stronger popular support in the country. There is a consensus opinion that Opposition Leader Neil Kinnock gave probably his most impressive performance during last week's debate, whilst Liberal Democrat Paddy Ashdown — himself a former Marine who turned to diplomacy before entering politics — has won admiration for his astute reading of the political and military issues.

Four weeks ago, Labour held a four point lead in the polls. The fact that this has now been converted into a five point advantage for the government has prompted suggestions that the Gulf could lead to a repeat of `The Falklands Factor' which acted in favour of the Thatcher government in 1982-83. Some observers remain skeptical arguing that the 1982-83 surge simply accentuated an existing trend. The swing of the past few weeks, they say, may have come about because the Gulf crisis has provided an extension of PM Major's predictable post-electoral `honeymoon'. Thus far the only cloud on the political horizon has come in the form of a criticism from Junior Defence Minister Alan Clark of the degree of commitment on the part of other European nations. At this stage nobody seems inclined to offer a stiff rebuke to the idiosyncratic Clark.

It remains to be seen whether the U.K.'s `peace campaigners' will be able to capitalize on the massive oil spill in the Gulf. The country's environmental lobby is reasonably well organized and has had an increasing impact on British politics over the past few years. The Green Party, which is still unrepresented in Parliament has arguably harmed its electoral chances by aligning with the peace movement. However the major parties have made substantial concessions to its purely environmental concerns and the impression has been a gradual `greening' of British politics. The initial impact of the oil spill has not weakened resolve. The Greens have not yet responded in a coherent manner — possibly because war is not on their agenda — but some stronger protests may be in the cards.

Meanwhile, the loss of six of the RAF's Tornado bomber aircraft has been causing some concern. The harsh reality is that the losses ran at the rate of one aircraft per sixty sorties compared with one aircraft for each thousand sorties elsewhere in the coalition air forces. The RAF's role has been to attack airfields and although only one of the aircraft lost was carrying the JP233 runway attack bomb, the indications are that most losses were suffered during missions against air bases. It is a role for which the RAF has trained long and hard. It has its origins in the RAF's belief that the way to knock enemy airfields was to go beneath the enemy radar rather than to follow the U.S. example and to fly under the cover of supporting Wild Weasel electronic suppression missions. In the process, JP233 became one of the U.K.'s most significant conventional weapons programmes and exercised a great influence on the fortunes of several of its largest defence companies — including Hunting Engineering, Royal Ordnance, FR Group, and ML Holdings.

There is no suggestion that the JP233 bomb — rejected by the USAF in favour of the French-made Durandel cratering bomb — has performed anything other than well. The skill of the RAF aircrew is above criticism. What may be called into question is the wisdom of the concept. Airfields in the Middle East and elsewhere are remarkably sophisticated installations in construction terms and have received considerable investment in equipment to run Survive to Operate techniques. The questions that may be asked during the next few months are whether the decision to opt for low level attack remains valid and whether there should be an urgent investment in a suitable stand-off means of attacking both airfields and massed armour.

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John Reed

ARGENTINA AND SPAIN CONTRIBUTE SHIPS TO U.N. COALITION

History has many battles between Argentinians and Spaniards, but in the modern-day battle to free Kuwait, both Argentina and Spain are part of the U.N. multinational naval forces currently coordinating efforts in the Persian Gulf.

ARGENTINA

In late October of last year, two Argentine ships — Admiral Brown and Spiro — were sent to the Gulf by presidential decree, according to an Argentine embassy official in Washington. Admiral Brown, a guided missile destroyer (DDG) of the Meko 360 class, was named after Argentina's first naval hero who is renowned for fighting against the Spaniards and Brazil. Spiro, a Meko 140-class missile corvette, is similar to a U.S. FFG-class vessel (guided missile frigate ie.: USS Stark) and was built in Argentina. Both ships are equipped for antiair and antiship warfare and have a total complement of 300 men.

Since their arrival in the Persian Gulf, the two combatants have been engaged in supporting the U.N. naval blockade against Iraq. However, last Tuesday the Argentine Congress approved a presidential proposal allowing the ships to participate in conflict in support of the allied forces. Our source stated that as a result of last week's decision, Argentine ships will continue to enforce the U.N. trade embargo from within the Persian Gulf, but will also assume an offensive role any time it is coordinated by the allied naval forces. Next week, Spiro will be replaced by the corvette Rosales and shortly thereafter, Admiral Brown will be rotated with the destroyer La Argentina.

SPAIN

Spanish sources informed The Wednesday Report on Monday that Spain is currently in the process of changing ships and crews involved in naval blockade operations in the Persian Gulf. The frigate Numancia — designated F 83 in the FFG 7-class — and corvettes Diana (F 32) and Infanta Cristina (F 34), both Descubierta-class (F 30) vessels will all be replaced by ships of corresponding type and class — Victoria (F 82), Infanta Elena (F 33), and Vencedora (F 36). The infamous Spanish frigate Extremadura, based in the Mediterranean, has also been tasked with the role of enforcing U.N. economic sanctions against Iraq. Sources also revealed that a Spanish civilian ship is providing naval transport for French troops, and that logistic aircraft are flying supplies for the coalition forces from bases in Spain to the Gulf region.

"SILENT SERVICE" IS HEARD FROM IN THE GULF

The U.S. Navy has announced that naval history was made last week when one of its newer 688-class submarines, the USS Louisville launched a cruise missile from the Red Sea against an Iraqi target.

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AN EGYPTIAN PERSPECTIVE ON THE GULF WAR

An Egyptian official who spoke on condition of not being identified, confirmed to The Wednesday Report last Friday that the people of Egypt fully support the actions of the U.N. multinational force and that between 40,000-45,000 Egyptian ground troops were sent to the Gulf region to assist in the liberation of Kuwait.

From the beginning, Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak repeatedly tried to solve the Gulf crisis diplomatically, but Saddam Hussein left the Arab nation with no other option. "It was either Saddam's rules or U.N. rules," said our source, who believes that Saudi Arabia, Qatar and United Arab Emirates would have been Saddam's next targets if military action had not been taken.

"Saddam miscalculated the situation. He assumed that no one would fight him because democratic nations take care of their people and would not send them off to war," he said.

Last week, Egypt's Parliament ended a debate with overwhelming support for Mubarak's Gulf war policy. Opposition parties had maintained that he should have sought parliamentary approval before sending troops, but parliamentary speaker Fathi Sorour ruled that the move did not require prior consent because Egyptian troops were sent to Saudi Arabia at the request of two governments in compliance with a 1950 Arab defence agreement.

It was not difficult for Egypt to join the U.N. coalition because Saddam "occupied another Arab country." Our Egyptian source believes, contrary to the picture painted by Iraqi propaganda, that Saddam is not worshipped by all Iraqis. He claims that Saddam invaded Kuwait to avoid "facing his people" after the suffering he caused them through eight years of war with Iran. By keeping his people in war, Saddam could prevent public backlash which would pose a threat to his political future in Iraq. "The people of Iraq are paying the price for keeping an unbelievable dictator in power. But when the war is over, Saddam will finally have to face his people and a new, moderate power will emerge in Iraq," he said. Until then, Iraqis will remain "Prisoners of Saddam Hussein".

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BRITISH AEROSPACE AUSTRALIA WINS $9.5 MILLION NAVY CONTRACT

British Aerospace Australia (BAeA) has been awarded a $9.5 million contract from the Royal Australian Navy to supply a simulator for training ship operations teams in the use of the modernized guided missile destroyer (DDG) combat system. Prime contractor BAeA is responsible for the system development and overall management of the project and has already chosen three subcontractors. Australian Defence Industries in Sydney will develop, manufacture and install facsimile hardware and will also develop a complex, DDG combat communications system. SD-SCICON is responsible for the development of the simulation software, and Futuretech Pty Ltd. for the Integrated Logistic Support including training development. Installation of the system at HMAS Watson is expected in January 1994.

NSA/EH101 UPDATE

The last of nine pre-production models of the EH101 helicopter — built for the EH101's integrated development and certification programme — recently completed its maiden flight at Agusta's Cascina Costa facility in Italy. The helicopter, a civil variant known as PP9, will be used to obtain airworthiness certification for the EH101 from British and Italian authorities by early 1993. Agusta, together with Westland of Great Britain and Unisys of the U.S. is a joint owner of E.H. Industries (Canada) Inc. (EHIC).

EHIC, prime contractor for the New Shipborne Aircraft (NSA) programme, recently completed a $32 million definition contract and submitted a formal offer to DND to supply the Canadian Forces with a "Canadianized" naval version of the EH101 to replace existing Sea King helicopters. Mr. H. Nielsen, NSA Programme Manager at DND said that the preliminary analysis of the offer, the logic to pricing process, has been completed and the results show "logic to why the offer was assembled and a good support effort by EHIC and its team". The second stage of the analysis, the Work Breakdown Structure, is currently under way and involves "looking at the EHIL (European Helicopter Industries Limited) part of the offer which is the prime mission vehicle". A team from the NSA Project Management Office (PMO) has been sent to London to examine the air vehicle and will report on its findings sometime this week. Although Nielsen and his staff are "still trying to come to grips with the overall offer", the PMO expects to make a recommendation to the Crown late March or early April. The implementation contract will be awarded by early 1992. "If deemed affordable, the project will go forward," said Nielsen.

Canadian subcontractors participating in the NSA project include Paramax Electronics Inc., Canadian Marconi Company and Amtek Group which are involved in the systems integration work; and I.M.P. Group of Halifax which has been chosen to assemble the NSA fleet. It is estimated that 28-45 EH101s will be purchased by the Canadian Forces at a cost of $3-$4 billion.

KODON OF MISSISSAUGA GETS AEROSPACE EXCLUSIVE

Fluid Components Incorporated (FCI) of San Marcos, California has appointed Kodon Technical Products based in Mississauga, Ontario as its exclusive aerospace representative. Since its establishment in 1964, FCI has designed and produced technologically advanced Thermal Dispersion Flow and Level Instrumentation for industrial and nuclear markets. Twenty-four years later, FCI began to diversify into the aerospace market and is currently creating flow and level sensing products for the Rockwell B-1B, McDonnell Douglas MD-11 and Apache, Canadair Regional Jet, and Airbus A330/A340 programmes. Including this recent appointment, Kodon Technical Products now exclusively represents eleven aerospace companies.

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HEWLETT-PACKARD EXTENDS HP 8791 SIMULATOR FAMILY

Hewlett-Packard (Canada) Ltd. of Mississauga, Ontario has introduced two frequency-agile signal simulators — models 11 and 21 — to the HP 8791 simulator family. The expanded memory — four times larger than that of Model 10 — and added dynamic sequencing of Model 11 permit improvements in signal complexity and length of sequences required for simulating the latest multimode radar, electronic warfare and communications signals. Model 21 provides typical 100 ns frequency agility over the range of 50 MHz to 18 GHz. Both simulators can be used for general purpose, automatic test equipment (ATE) applications and integration into third party, multiple emitter simulators.

DE HAVILLAND GETS NEW MARKETING AND SALES V.P.

John Howarth has been appointed Vice President of Marketing and Sales for Boeing Canada's de Havilland Division, effective February 4. Howarth — a fifteen-year veteran of the division — replaces Tom Appleton who held the position since 1986. Prior to his appointment, Howarth served as de Havilland's Vice President, Customer Support.

HALIFAX COMPANY WINS $500,000 POLARIS CONTRACT FROM DND

While bullets and bombs fly about the Middle East, Canadian infantry commanders will get a chance to try out their battle strategies from the relative safety of a computer console. Crisis Simulations Ltd. of Halifax, Nova Scotia has sold the Department of National Defence ten of its Polaris command and control trainers.

The contract to produce the systems, along with refurbishing three other Polaris programmes currently in use with DND is worth $500,000 to the small Maritime company. Crisis Simulations was founded in 1982 by former infantry major Kenneth Eyre and sold its first Polaris to the 4th Canadian Mechanized Brigade Group (4 CMBG) in 1985. The system is an economical training tool for the budget conscious Canadian armed forces. A computer calculates the permutations and combinations of warfare at the battalion level, right down to the firing of an individual rifleman's weapon. But unlike fully automated American computer trainers — with monitors that show software generated images of the "battlefield" — Polaris uses a "high resolution display area", recognizable to war gamers as a tabletop map with military figures.

Terry Weatherbee, director of operations at Crisis Simulations says most battalion and brigade commanders do not see the field of fire while directing their troops. The exacting precision of the Polaris programme allows the "fidelity in training value to come into play". Weatherbee adds that conflicts like the Persian Gulf war show that computer training will likely come into greater use in the future as armies are trained to deal with the unexpected.

JAPANESE AIRLINE GETS FIRST CFM56-5-A1-POWERED A320

All Nippon Airways (ANA) of Japan recently received the first of thirteen CFM56-5-A1-powered Airbus A320 aircraft for use on its domestic routes. The remaining twelve aircraft will be delivered in 1992 and 1993, leaving seven option aircraft on order. ANA — the first airline in the Pacific Rim to operate A320s — first selected the CFM56-5-A1 engine in 1988 for its proven reliability, low operating costs, and exceptional noise and emissions levels. The engine is produced by CFM International, a joint company of SNECMA of France and General Electric of the U.S.

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MANX AIRLINES CONFIRMS JETSTREAM 31 ORDER

Manx Airlines, a unit of Airlines of Britain Group, has confirmed its order for two 17-seat Jetstream 31 airliners from British Aerospace Commercial Aircraft. The two Jetstreams will be introduced in March on Manx's recently awarded routes to Belfast, Dublin and Glasgow as well as on new continental services to Brussels, Paris and Dusseldorf. With this order Manx becomes the first airline in the world to operate all three British Aerospace regional airliners: the 146, ATP and Jetstream.

BAE 146 SIMULATOR INSTALLED AT U.S. TRAINING CENTRE

A BAe 146 simulator has been placed in BAe's Customer Training Centre near Dulles International Airport to handle overflow flight training from BAe's Hatfield facility and attract airlines in the 146 simulator market. The simulator is capable of providing instruction for either the 146-200 or the 146-300 with EFIS cockpit and can also be modified to accommodate RJ70 instruction. Certification of the simulator to FAA Level C (Phase II) should be completed in time to begin training in early March.

ANTISHIPPING PENGUIN MISSILE GETS TWO-CONTRACT BOOST

Two contracts for British Aerospace (Systems and Equipment) Limited (BASE) from the U.S. Navy and Norsk Forsvarsteknologi (NFT) of Kongsberg, Norway have opened the door to further export orders for Penguin antiship missiles. The U.S. Navy has agreed to purchase up to approximately 200 Penguin Mk 2 Mod 7 missiles from BASE at a potential cost — assuming further options are exercised — of more than £6.5 million (sterling) over the period 1992-1996. More recently, NFT selected BASE to supply Canard Actuation Units — flight control subsystems that transmit commands to the Penguin's forward fins.

MBB GETS BO 105 LS DESIGN AUTHORITY AS BO 108 GETS NOD

In two successive announcements, MBB has declared that it will build a better helicopter in Germany and hand off the old one to Canada.

MBB Helicopter Canada Limited of Fort Erie, Ontario announced that it has received complete design authority for the MBB BO 105 LS from MBB Germany. The signing of the transfer documents marked the first time that a Canadian company has held complete design authority for a helicopter. All future developments to the BO 105 LS will be initiated, completed and certified in Canada — including customer requested optional equipment and modifications to the basic helicopter.

Meanwhile, Messerschmitt-Boelkow-Blohm GmbH (MBB) in Ottobrunn, Germany, a unit of Daimler-Benz AG's aerospace division announced that prototype trials have led the firm to commit to production its twin-engined BO 108. The firm is planning for first deliveries to customers in 1995. The new machine seats six people, has a range of 800 kilometers and a payload of 1.25 tonnes. MBB claims that the BO 108 model is significantly quieter, has better emission standards, and is cheaper to operate than the BO 105.

TWR READERS INVITED TO ORDER NADIBO PUBLICATIONS

Four publications produced by the North American Defence Industrial Base Organization (NADIBO) are available for distribution to interested members of the defence community. The publications make up a four-part series entitled "The North American Defence Industrial Base" and include "The North American Defence Industrial Base: A Half-Century of Defence-Economic Cooperation" (Annex 1); "North American Defence Industrial Preparedness Planning" (Annex 2); "The NADIB and Industry: Responsibilities and Opportunities" (Annex 3); and "Industrial Preparedness Measures: Opportunities for Industry" (Annex 4). Readers who wish to obtain any one or all of these

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The Wednesday Report - Copyright 1991

January 30, 1991

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