Bin Laden does have political goals. He wants U.S. troops out of Saudi Arabia, an end to bombing and sanctions in Iraq, and no more U.S. support for Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory. More broadly, he wants to curb U.S. influence in the Muslim world.

Mujahideen-i-Khalq

DUBAI, April 1: Iran's main opposition group, the Mujahideen-i-Khalq, said on Sunday three of their fighters had been killed in clashes with Iranian security forces.

The Iraq-based organization also said in a statement in Dubai that they had killed or wounded "dozens" of Iranian troops in clashes near the Iraqi border on Saturday.

The group said its forces also fired mortars at military and security targets in the western province of Kermanshah early on Sunday.

The Mujahideen have used Iraq as a base for operations.

The group regularly mounts mortar and rocket attacks on Iranian forces and has stepped up cross-border raids and attacks deep inside Iran.-Reuters

On the other side are students mostly of middle class origins. In 1978 they were Marxist and fought against the Shah for a secular and socialist Iran. In 1980 they were crushed by the Khomeini forces. Many died but many also made it to Iraq where they were welcomed by Saddam Hussein. They called themselves Mujahideen-i Khalq, meaning both in Farsi and Arabic, "the People's Fighters."

Bin Laden traced to Iran (?)
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - With the whole of Afghanistan in the hands of anti-Taliban forces and accessible to United States ground forces, the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden and the leadership of his Al-Qaeda network remains a mystery.

The US were led a merry dance in the Tora Bora in eastern Afghanistan, being duped by mercenary local commanders into believing that thousands of Al-Qaeda fighters, as well as bin Laden, were holed up in caves in the mountains. (See Taliban's trail leads to Pakistan, Dec 13)

Of course, bin Laden was not sitting patiently waiting to greet the US troops when they and their local allies finally overran the region, the last pocket of resistance in the country. Instead, they found only a few hundred Al-Qaeda fighters and a number of women and children. Bin Laden and the "thousands" had already slipped into the Pakistan tribal areas, the US were told by the conniving commanders.

However, extensive investigations by Asia Times Online indicate that bin Laden has crossed the southwest border into Iran, where he is being sheltered by dissident Iranian guerrilla fighters of the Mujahideen-i-Khalq, a group with strong Iraqi links and which is outlawed as a terrorist organization by the United States. Interviews with Pakistani jihadi who fought in Afghanistan, journalists and intelligence sources support this view.

Drawing on the combined information of these sources, it appears that even before September 11 bin Laden changed his location within Afghanistan every few days, shuttling between Jalalabad, Kandahar and Kabul. In Jalalabad alone he had a number of places to live. The former governor of Nangarhar and now the governor of the eastern provinces, Haji Abdul Qadeer, provided him with costly residences.

Soon after September 11, the US demanded that the Taliban hand over bin Laden. Later, it expanded its demand to include the handover of the entire leadership of Al-Qaeda, and subsequently it said that it would attack Afghanistan to break the entire Al-Qaeda network. These demands strongly suggested to the Taliban leadership that US President George W Bush was obsessed with attacking Afghanistan regardless of whether they arranged for bin Laden to escape from the country or not.

At this stage bin Laden remained in Kabul, in a center for Arab fighters. That was the time when diplomatic efforts were under way to reach a peaceful settlement in handing over bin Laden. Having rejected the US demands, Taliban leader Mullah Omar decided to keep bin Laden in a secret place known only to a handful of people. He was hidden along with a small number of Arab bodyguards and his confidante, Egyptian Dr Aimen Al-Zawari and senior members of Al-Qaeda.

The manner in which messages and video tapes featuring bin Laden were delivered in Kabul to the Al-Jazeera television network and some newspapers indicates that he was not too far from Kabul. Many of the sources speculated that in the first 10 days of the war he was holed up in Bamiyan, home to the famous ancient giant buddhas until they were destroyed by the Taliban earlier this year.

Later, after the order to retreat from Mazar-e-Sharif was given, bin Laden went to Jalalabad, and briefly stayed in the Tora Bora caves. The sources suggest that he left this hideaway when the Taliban retreated from Kabul, moving back to Jalalabad, where he was handed into the protection of Maulvi Yunus Khalis. After the Taliban's retreat from the east, there was no place left for bin Laden except Kandahar, after which he would have no option but to cross a border into any one of six neighboring countries.

And it appears that he chose Iran, rather than Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan or China. A leading source says that shortly before the collapse of Kandahar, Mullah Omar called a meeting in the town at which the governor and important commanders were present. Mullah Omar briefly mentioned the war situation, explaining the reasons for the sudden retreat from Kabul. He stressed that given the heavy US carpet bombing, there would be no way to defend Kandahar, and so he had arranged for the safety of senior "guest" fighters and would announce the surrender of Kandahar shortly.

The sources say that after this meeting bin Laden went to see Mullah Omar, along with a small group of Afghans and Arabs. Bin Laden's next destination was discussed, and it was not Chaman in Pakistan, as some reports have said, as it was infested with anti-Taliban militia.

The sources point out that that Iranian border areas are a nest of the Mujahideen-i-Khalq, who are fighting a war against the government in Tehran. They are minority Sunnis, and they have good relations with some of the Afghan and Pakistani tribes. When the Iranian government has taken its regular crackdowns on the group, members have taken refuge in Pakistani or Afghani tribal areas.

The group has claimed responsibility for a number of attacks on government buildings in Tehran as well as attacks on the offices of Iranian President Mohammad Khatami. They derive most of their funds from smuggling arms and drugs, so they have good relations with other smugglers in the region, and the routes they use.

The sources say that bin Laden and close colleagues could have crossed into Iran using smuggling routes with the help of the Mujahideen-i-Khalq, and taken refuge in caves there that are said to be much more extensive and sophisticated than those of the Tora Bora.

Where is bin Laden?

While at the time of writing, efforts to find Osama bin Laden are being concentrated in Tora Bora, he is more likely to be now in Pakistan en route to the mountains of the Kashmir. If he is over the border en route to Kashmir this would be a catastrophic development for the international community and for the peoples of the area, including the whole of Pakistan and India, because it means bin Laden could be able to position himself in the centre of a crisis with a potential nuclear outcome.

Currently, US officials maintain that he is likely to still be in the region and are concentrating their efforts there. However, in my opinion that this is unlikely, as such a scenario doesn’t fit in with the psychological profile of bin Laden. Osama bin Laden is a clinical psychopath, not a revolutionary leader. He is not the psychological type to commit suicide in a last ditch battle with US forces, unless he can avoid it. Although I have drawn comparisons in my book between bin Laden and Che Guevara, it was only from the point of view of how bin Laden can be seen by radicalized youth in Palestine and other Muslim countries. Unlike bin Laden, Guevara went down fighting for what he believed in. Guevara believed in his cause above all else. The difference between him and bin Laden is that bin Laden believes only in himself, he is a psychopath consumed by amassing power and self-glorification and the cause of fundamentalism for bin Laden is purely a screen for the playing out of his deep-seated psychological and emotional dysnfunctionality. Psychopaths are intelligent and cunning. Unlike psychotics, they are in touch with reality. Bin Laden would have realized weeks ago that the demoralization of his Al Qaida forces under the US bombardment and the collapse of the Taliban meant that even holding out, let alone winning was untenable. He is not the type the sit around or hide in a bunker waiting for capture or death. Reports from captured Al Qaida that he escaped weeks ago are probably true. Bin Laden is on a mission, a mission of death and destruction and I doubt that he feels he has exhausted all the possibilities to continue this psychopathic crusade. Moreover, a psychopath enjoys the "chase", the higher the stakes, the greater the danger, the more he can employ his characteristics of cunning, manipulation, subterfuge. His "victory" over the USA would be to live on and activate a new terrorist attack in the US or Europe.

Living only for power, bin Laden will strive to survive for as long as possible in order before he dies to create as much destruction as possible. This is the meaning and purpose of his life, not revolution, ideology or anything else but power and destruction. This is what motivates him to flee from Afghanistan and continue to seek out the best possible avenues to continue his psychopathic war. He is not so much fleeing through fear, (psychopaths have been shown to lack this emotion, along with all others) but because he is obsessed purely by power and self-glorification. Despite the defeat of his forces in Afghanistan, he is not finished and he maintains a powerful aura among fundamentalists. An escape, may be even serve to raise his hero status among fundamentalists for having outwitted the might of the US and lived to fight another day.

So where would or could bin Laden go? Most of his former sympathetic states have joined "the alliance against terrorism". Places like Sudan and Somalia don't provide sufficient safety. He would not be safe against US forces now local governments are no longer prepared to turn a blind eye or cover for him and he would be an easier target for bounty hunters. Yemen, likewise, is insecure, shown when government forces engaged fundamentalist in heavy fire recently. Some reports from Asian journalists have suggested he has crossed into Iran and is being harbored by Iranian opposition guerrilla forces. I, personally, find this scenario unlikely. The strength on the ground in Iran is very weak and most of their forces are to be found in Iraq, not Iran. Also, bin Laden would be playing a dangerous game by being seen to align himself with the Iranian opposition. They are Sunnis (like bin Laden) and the Iranian government is Shia. The umbrella of Al Qaida groups and its affiliates internationally might begin to splinter along Shiite and Sunni lines. Moreover, the Iranian opposition is far from a homogenous group of fundamentalists. They mix Marxism and Islam, support women's rights, who make up 50% of their members, including in the ruling council. Hardly the milieu most suitable for bin Laden's brand of fundamentalism. If he were with Mujahideen-i-Khalq he would more likely have to be in their bases in Iraq. Saddam Hussein is unlikely to welcome this. Despite his sympathies with Al Qaida's activities, Hussein (who is trying to get the embargo lifted), is not going to make himself a total international pariah or a target for a US invasion or strikes. He has his own agenda and the fate of bin Laden is not a priority for Sadam Hussein. Moreover, there is never any love lost between psychopaths and no room for two in one room.

The best possible option for bin Laden is Pakistan. He has a relatively easy escape route through areas, which are relatively friendly to him. Many of his Al Qaida forces come from these regions, know the terrain, the safe places to hide, where and how travel, and where to head for. In the end he will probably head for the mountains of Kashmir which offer greater safety and opportunities to continue his operations or regroup his forces. Huge areas are already under the control of fundamentalist guerrillas and are difficult territory for loyal Pakistan troops, as well as potential international forces. It is likely that the Kashmiri fundamentalist forces would welcome bin Laden and the remnants of Al Qaida and Taliban forces collaborators. The HaraKat Mujahideen's leader Farooq Kashmiri has direct links to bin Laden and other groups have had similar links to the Taliban. HaraKat Mujahideen, indeed signed bin Laden's 1998 Fatwa against the West. One should also bear in mind that considerable sections of the Pakistani army were Taliban and Al Qaida sympathizers and would hinder attempts to flush bin Laden out.

Moreover, Pakistan is especially enticing to bin Laden because it is a place where the struggle of Islamic fundamentalism is one of the fieriest in the world. What is especially exciting and enticing for a psychopath like bin Laden, is that this clash between Hindu India and Islamic Pakistan over Kashmir, is overshadowed both powers having a nuclear capacity. For Osama bin Laden, the idea of playing a key role and maybe even eventually securing a leading position in a crisis involving nuclear weaponry will pull him like an addict to a cauldron of cocaine. It will galvanize his craving for absolute power and destruction to a level of frenzy. He will visualize himself in the role of the most feared individual in the world since Hitler.

If bin Laden makes it to Kashmir we really are in a qualitatively new ballgame. His arrival in Kashmir could give a huge impetus to the struggle of the Pakistani fundamentalists there and open up a new stage of confrontation with Indian forces, with an increase in terrorist attacks like that on the Indian Parliament recently, but then throughout India. There would be increased stresses and possible clashes between the India and Pakistan, which could possibly lead to another more bloody new Indo-Pakistani war. Furthermore, as the world already knows, these two countries are nuclear powers. Although, even if another war broke out, it would still be unlikely for these weapons to be used with the current governments, however,

We should not forget that war is often the mother of revolution. What is frightening, then, is the possibility of the regime in Pakistan being replaced by a Taliban style government, and one in which from his bunker in Kashmir, bin Laden could emerge as an influential figure. The world would then face a fundamentalist power with nuclear weapons with bin Laden as a central figure. Not only India, but Saudi Arabia, Israel and maybe even within range of Europe would be within range of a fundamentalist nuclear strike.
If I were the CIA and Special Forces I’d be scouring the routes and ranges from the Afghan-Pakistan border to Kashmir this moment.